Research & Analysis: Energy & Carbon Management


Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's China Energy Group for helping with one of the most important tasks on the global climate agenda: improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon intensity of electric power, industrial production and other sectors in China. The largest producer of GHGs, China's economic growth trajectory-7% a year is dangerously close to a recession for the world's most populous nation-and its heavy reliance on coal for electric power and industry make greening China's energy sector a fundamental prerequisite for mitigating global GHGs.

CEG's staff of 16 and visiting faculty from universities and national labs in the U.S. and China work with China's government, businesses and NGOs to understand and quantify energy and GHG emissions, improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions and strengthen China's energy efficiency capabilities. CEG is widely viewed in energy and climate circles as an authoritative source on these topics, giving its research and analysis credibility in policy and business circles.

Recent reports include: a study of energy-efficient, water-efficient and low-pollution technologies for the textile industry; comparisons of efficiency standards for computer monitors and gas stoves around the world, which is designed to inform the standard-setting process in China; and an evaluation of how local governments are enforcing efficiency standards and labeling for appliances.

CEG's China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050, published in 2011 and since updated, lays bare just how much influence China will have on climate change. Comparing China's business-as-usual energy/carbon pathway (which already incorporates aggressive improvements for energy and carbon intensity) to an aspirational Accelerated Improvement Scenario (featuring far more nuclear and renewable power than BAU), CEG estimates China could mitigate its annual CO2 emissions by 3.8 billion tonnes-more than 10% of current global GHG emissions-by 2050.

Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, the premier market analysis firm for GHGs and emissions trading systems, for launching a new emissions forecast for South Korea, a new price forecast for Australia, a new tool for modeling the California emissions market, extending its EU Emissions Trading Scheme model to 2030 and beginning coverage of China's seven emerging ETS programs.

The firm's California model predicts emissions in each economic sector, accounting for production trends and efficiency gains throughout the California economy. In 2013, Thomson Reuters Point Carbon forecast California emissions would be below the cap through 2019, leading to a price decrease estimated by the firm at 5%. In 2014, it will update its supply forecast for REDD (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) projects as California moves forward with accepting REDD credits from Chiapas, Mexico, and Acre, Brazil.

With the extension of its EU ETS model in 2013, the analysis firm developed a reference point to facilitate investment decisions up to 2030 and beyond, enabling decision makers and traders to take a long-term view on a currently fragile market.